Stock Market, April 12: What's on Tap

Stock Market, April 12: What's on Tap

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NEW YORK (TheStreet -- The early reviews on Alcoa's (AA_) numbers aren't favorable as the aluminum giant came in light on the top line. It wasn't a huge miss, but judging by the swift reaction in Monday's after-hours session, the stock, which is up 23% in the past year, looks to have been priced for perfection.

While Alcoa is the first Dow component to report, the bigger names come later this week with JP Morgan Chase(JPM_) on Wednesday, Google(GOOG_) after Thursday's closing bell, and Bank of America(BAC_) slated for Friday morning.
The only S&P 500 component to report on Tuesday is Fastenal(FAST_), a Winona, Minn.-based maker of industrial and construction products whose shares are up 30% in the past year. Wall Street is expecting a profit of 52 cents a share in the quarter on revenue of $630.4 million.
As for economic data, Wall Street will get some datapoints on global inflation. Import prices are to be delivered at 8:30 a.m. ET, and are expected to continue to climb. Also due at 8:30 a.m. ET are international trade gap figures. January's figures widened to $46.3 billion from a revised $40.3 billion in December. Most of that was attributed to nonpetroleum goods. The petroleum shortfall widened, but only modestly.
Monday's flat session for stocks was likely disconcerting for the bulls as another raft of M&A deals, headlined by Level 3 Communications(LVLT_) agreeing to pay a 50%-plus premium for Global Crossing(GLBC_) in a $3 billion deal, failed to send the major indexes higher.
TrimTabs sees some weakness ahead and the research firm went to "neutral" on U.S. equities from "cautiously bullish" on Monday, citing expectations that tax-related selling may push stocks lower this week.

"The U.S. stock market tends to perform poorly in the week before Tax Day, which is April 18 this year," the firm said. "In the past 15 years, the Russell 1000 fell an average of 0.8% in the week before Tax Day (it posted losses in 10 of the 15 years)."
TrimTabs continued: "While the market performed well in the week before Tax Day in 2009 and 2010, tax-related selling could be heavier than usual this year because the market had such a big run in the past two years."   The firm thinks the pullback will only be a blip however and, all else being equal, it plans to turn "fully bullish" next weekend as the market tends to rally once the populace settles up with Uncle Sam.

At 2:00 p.m. ET, the Treasury Department releases its monthly budget. The last report showed a seasonal worsening in the deficit in February of $222.5 billion from $49.8 billion in January. Five months into the 2011 fiscal year, the government's deficit stands at $641.3 billion, and March typically shows a deficit. The March 2010 deficit came in at $65.4 billion. This news comes as the battle over the debt ceiling is heating up. Normally, the Treasury asks for the limit to be increased and Congress okays it. But this time around, Congress is in no mood to rubber stamp an increase request.
Some are saying this fight could be worse than the fiscal 2011 budget fight. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has already dropped hints that he wants an increase and warned that the debt ceiling could be reached by mid-May if not sooner.

The difference between a government shutdown and the Treasury running out of money is stark. With a shutdown, checks would still go out.
However, if the Treasury doesn't get its way, then there is no money flowing. Military salaries, Social Security checks and jobless benefits would all stop immediately. That kind of shock to the system would quickly drive up interest rates.

Source: The Street

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